Recession 2024 predictions

The Congressional Budget Office regularly publishes reports presenting its baseline projections of what the federal budget and the economy would look like in the current year and over the next 10 years if laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged.

This report is the latest in that series, presented in an abbreviated version to facilitate work on other Congressional priorities.

Is a recession coming in 2025

The budget projections are based on CBO’s economic forecast, which reflects developments in the economy as of December 4, 2024. They also incorporate legislation enacted through January 6, 2025.

The Budget Outlook

Deficits

In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 is $1.9 trillion.

Adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of certain payments, the deficit grows to $2.7 trillion by 2035. It amounts to 6.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 and drops to 5.2 percent by 2027 as revenues increase faster than outlays.

In later years, outlays increase faster than revenues, on average. In

is there going to be a recession soon

will there be a recession soon